RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — As Brazil gears up to host the Group of 20 summit, it seems improbable that the prominent wealthy and developing nations will agree on a significant declaration concerning geopolitical issues. The gathering set for Monday and Tuesday in Rio de Janeiro is overshadowed by two significant conflicts and Donald Trump’s recent electoral win. Increased global tensions and uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump administration have dampened hopes for a forceful statement addressing the crises in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation.
Instead, experts predict that the final document will focus on social concerns, such as hunger eradication—one of Brazil’s key priorities—even if it attempts to acknowledge the ongoing wars. “Brazilian diplomacy has been deeply involved in this endeavor, but expecting a strong and unified declaration in a year like 2024 with two serious international conflicts is setting the bar quite high,” remarked Cristiane Lucena Carneiro, an international relations professor at the University of Sao Paulo.
Following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s defeat of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections, there was a sense of optimism in the global community regarding the leftist leader and skilled diplomat—whom Barack Obama once referred to as “the most popular politician on Earth”—hosting the G20. Bolsonaro had little personal interest in international summits, allowed ideology to dictate foreign policy, and had conflicts with several leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron. Lula, upon taking office, often reiterated a slogan: “Brazil is back.”
Brazil, under Lula, has reverted to its long-standing principle of non-alignment to create a policy that best protects its interests in an increasingly multipolar world. This approach involves engaging with all parties, which experts believe has positioned Brazil favorably to host a summit like the G20. However, Lula’s administration’s foreign policy has occasionally raised eyebrows. A proposed Brazil-China peace initiative for Russia and Ukraine does not call for Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine and has faced criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Additionally, Lula created a diplomatic stir with Israel by likening its actions in Gaza to the Holocaust. Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential election and the likely resurgence of an America First policy may also hinder the diplomatic consensus necessary for agreement on contentious topics. “One certainty we have is Donald Trump’s skepticism towards multilateralism,” Carneiro stated.
Two officials from Brazil and one from another G20 country indicated that Argentine negotiators are obstructing a joint declaration. They requested anonymity due to their lack of authorization to speak publicly. Two of them noted that Argentina’s negotiators have raised multiple objections to the draft, particularly opposing a clause advocating for a global tax on the ultra-wealthy—which they had previously accepted in July—and another promoting gender equality.
Ambassador Mauricio Lyrio, Brazil’s lead negotiator at the G20, informed journalists on November 8 that the leaders’ final declaration should address the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, but that diplomats were still deliberating on how to formulate universally acceptable language.
“The main message, of course, is that we need to strive for peace not only regarding these conflicts but all conflicts,” he said in Brasilia, adding that Lula’s launch of a global alliance against hunger and poverty on Monday is equally significant as the final statement. “The leaders’ declaration will be the crowning achievement. However, as instructed by the president himself, we have a G20 focused on concrete actions, such as the launch of a Global Alliance Against Hunger, which includes a package of specific social programs and innovative mechanisms to secure the necessary resources for implementation.”
Lula, a former trade unionist from modest beginnings, prioritized the fight against hunger during his first two terms as president (2003-2010) both domestically and internationally. According to a 2014 U.N. report, the number of undernourished Brazilians decreased by over 80% in a decade. Lula’s hunger alliance is the only one of Brazil’s main objectives for a G20 declaration that is expected to materialize, according to Thomas Traumann, a former government minister and political consultant based in Rio. “Brazil aimed for a global agreement to combat poverty, a project to finance a green transition, and some consensus on a global tax for the super-rich. Only the first goal has survived,”
Traumann stated. President Joe Biden will attend the summit after a stop in Lima for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and will then proceed to Manaus, a city in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. This visit marks the first time a sitting American president will set foot in the Amazon, and the trip aims to emphasize “commitment to…
