KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — When Russian tanks invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the prevailing belief was that Kyiv would soon capitulate and the rest of the nation would quickly succumb to a significantly larger adversary. However, that narrative rapidly unraveled. The Ukrainian military demonstrated its ability to impede the advance of Russian forces and, while not completely driving them out, managed to stave off defeat with substantial Western support.
Fast forward nearly three years, and the situation appears dire once more. Russia is investing vast resources and human lives to achieve modest but consistent territorial gains in the nearly one-fifth of Ukraine it already occupies. Meanwhile, Ukraine is striving to limit its losses, uphold morale, and persuade its allies that with increased military assistance, it can reverse the tide.
As this brutal war of attrition approaches its 1,000th day, neither side shows a willingness to engage in negotiations. President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he could swiftly bring the conflict to an end, though it remains uncertain how he would influence the outcome or which side would benefit. This context seems to be shaping Russia’s strategy in eastern Ukraine, according to Phillips O’Brien, a strategic studies professor at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
Trump might attempt to force a resolution by cutting off military aid to Ukraine, O’Brien noted. “If Trump reduces support for Ukraine and a cease-fire results in a frozen conflict, Russia aims to secure as much territory as possible now,” he explained. For Ukraine, any cease-fire would hinge on assurances from the West that it would prevent any future Russian invasions. Otherwise, O’Brien warned, “a cease-fire is a recipe for ongoing instability in Europe.”
RUSSIA IS MAKING GRADUAL BUT STEADY GAINS IN EASTERN UKRAINE
During the first year of the war, Ukraine lost significant territory but also achieved notable victories. It managed to withstand a much larger foe with superior air power, maintaining its independence and reclaiming some land through courageous counteroffensives, which bolstered the confidence of both the underdog and its affluent allies to continue the fight. In the second year, marked by Ukraine’s devastating loss in Bakhmut and an unsuccessful counteroffensive, the front lines reached a stalemate along a 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) stretch.
Toward the end of that year, the U.S. Congress postponed the approval of a $61 billion aid package for military, economic, and humanitarian support. As Ukraine’s ammunition supplies dwindled, its prospects worsened significantly as the third year of the war commenced. In February 2024, the town of Avdiivka fell after months of Russian airstrikes, utilizing highly destructive Soviet-era bombs modified with navigation systems. The loss of Avdiivka created a significant breach in Ukraine’s defenses.
When Russia subsequently launched an attack on the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces were further stretched. A silver lining for Ukraine emerged in August when it executed a surprise incursion into Russia, capturing — and still holding — hundreds of square kilometers in the Kursk region. While this could serve as a valuable bargaining chip in any cease-fire discussions, it has not prevented Russian forces from seizing more territory in eastern Ukraine.
“The Russians have incurred a substantial cost to continue their advance, but they are willing to pay that price in lives to gain a few more meters of territory each day,” remarked Justin Crump, head of the British strategic advisory firm Sibylline. Estimates suggest that tens of thousands of soldiers from both nations have lost their lives since the war began in 2022, with the U.N. reporting at least 11,700 Ukrainian civilian fatalities.
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Although the land Russia has acquired in 2024 — approximately 2,455 square kilometers (948 square miles) — represents less than 1% of Ukraine’s pre-war territory, it is having a psychological effect. With Ukraine in retreat, “we’ve now returned to a period reminiscent of the (war’s) early months,” stated Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at the CBA Initiatives Center in Kyiv. “This bolsters Russia’s position — not necessarily in military terms, but in morale.”
A WAR OF ATTRITION REQUIRES BOTH SIDES TO SEEK OUTSIDE RESOURCES
To sustain its military efforts, Russia — much like Ukraine — has sought assistance from allies. Iran is supplying drones and potentially missiles to Russia, while North Korea has provided ammunition and even troops, who have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed this year that 700,000 of his troops are engaged in Ukraine.
Analysts suggest that Putin would require a significantly larger force to accelerate Russia’s progress, but he is unlikely to mobilize additional troops due to the risk of inciting internal unrest. Ukraine’s presence in Kursk adds another layer of complexity for Putin, and it could be…
